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Southeast Region Labor Market Trends

Southeast Region Labor Market Trends

Brent Pearson

Regional Labor Market Analyst

Labor Market Information Office

Labor Market Information (LMI) Office

Labor Market Information (LMI) Office

•LMI Office supports state workforce and economic development systems by producing and disseminating data, key indicators, analysis, and trends on the economy, workforce, job market, and business community.

•LMI Office’s high quality information advises policy makers on current and future economic trends, helps employers make informed business decisions, and assists individuals in making strong career choices.

Minnesota job trend overview

Minnesota job trend overview

•Employment is growing

–649,996 more jobs compared to last October

–6Regained all jobs lost during the recession, plus 5,100 jobs

•Unemployment rate at 4.8% in October

–6Compared to a 7.3% rate in the United States

• Other positive signs

–69 of 11 major sectors show increases over-the-year

–6MN outpaces the nation in 6 of 11

–6The Avg. work week in Sept. up to 34.3 – matches previous high

–6MN slightly outpaces nation OTY job growth (1.8 to 1.7%)

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development & The Conference Board

Over-the-year regional trends in Minnesota, October 2013

Over-the-year regional trends in Minnesota, October 2013

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Numeric Employment Change

Percent

Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI

42,878

Duluth-Superior MN-WI

419

Rochester

224

St. Cloud

2,248

Mankato

516

 

 

Minnesota

49,996

United States

2,299,000

1.7%

Data are September 2012 to September 2013.

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Regional industry trends

Regional industry trends

•11 of 19 sectors in SE grew in past year.

•6 lost

•Highest growth in Admin and Support and Waste Management Services

•Overall, SE grew approx 4,500 jobs (2%)

•6 sectors exceeded that growth

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Regional industry trends
Assessing the recovery

Regional industry trends
Assessing the recovery

•6 sectors have fully recovered

•7 have not

•Construction and Finance are way down

•Management of Companies, Ag, and HC + Social high % gains

•Still too soon to say these industries will not recover

SE: Job Openings Expanding

SE: Job Openings Expanding

SE: Job Openings by Industry

SE: Job Openings by Industry

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Top 12 occupations with the most openings in the SE Region (n=5,421)

Top 12 occupations with the most openings in the SE Region (n=5,421)

•Combined Food Prep & Serving Workers (204)

•Nursing Assistants (199)

•Waiters and Waitresses (187)

•Social and Human Service Assistants (186)

•Cashiers (182)

•Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (158)

•Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (134)

•Retail Salespersons (117)

•Restaurant Cooks (112)

•Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (108)

•Personal Care Aides (107)

•Bartenders (106)

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Minnesota and U.S. Unemployment Rates

Minnesota and U.S. Unemployment Rates

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Regional unemployment rates

Regional unemployment rates

County

Olmsted

Wabasha

Dodge

Fillmore

Mower

Steele

Houston

Winona

Goodhue

Freeborn

Rice

4.4%

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Forecasting future job trends

Forecasting future job trends

•Minnesota’s economy will grow by 13%, or 368,000 new jobs, between 2010 and 2020.

•Over 663,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements.

•Employment changes depend on the demand for goods and services, productivity advances, technological innovations, and shifts in business practices.

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Assumptions

Assumptions

•Recovery from the steep job losses experienced between 2008 and 2010 will boost job growth in Minnesota during the next few years, but job growth will slow.

•Job growth over the next decade will average 1.3% a year, a pace similar to job growth experienced in 2011.

•The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2010-2020 national industry projections are:

–6GDP growth will average 3.0 % annually

–6Productivity growth will slow

–6U.S. labor force growth will slow

–6Unemployment will average 5.2% in 2020

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Health care will add the most new jobs in SE MN between 2010 and 2020

Health care will add the most new jobs in SE MN between 2010 and 2020

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Office, Health Care and Sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers

Office, Health Care and Sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

SE Region fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 14.3%

SE Region fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 14.3%

•Biomedical Engineers (94.4%)

•Personal Care Aides (69.4%)

•Home Health Aides (61.8%)

•Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers (60.9%)

•Veterinary Technologists and Technicians (56.4%)

•Carpenter Helpers (56.1%)

•Medical Equipment Repairers (52.3%)

•HVAC (Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration) Mechanics (51.5%)

•Audiologists (51.4%)

•Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters (47.4%)

•Translators and Interpreters (44.8%)

•Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators (44%)

•Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians (42%)

•Mental Health Counselors (41.7%)

•Glaziers (41.4%)

•Metal Workers and Plastic Workers, All Other (41.2%)

•Electricians (39.2%)

•Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (38.9%)

•Veterinarians (38.2%)

•Sheet Metal Workers (38.1%)

•Cost Estimators (37.7%)

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

SE Region occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 97,350 (59,620 replacement)

SE Region occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 97,350 (59,620 replacement)

•Retail Salespersons (3,810)

•Registered Nurses (3,650)

•Cashiers (3,170)

•Home Health Aides (2,960)

•Waiters and Waitresses (1,880)

•Office Clerks, General (1,860)

•Combined Food Prep and Serving Workers (1,800)

•Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (1,780)

•Personal Care Aides (1,670)

•Childcare Workers (1,410)

•Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Mpovers (1,350)

•Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeepers (1,260)

•Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants (1,180)

•Customer Service Reps (1,150)

•Business Operations Specialists (1,110)

•Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Workers (1,070)

•Medical Secretaries (990)

•First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (910)

•Teacher Assistants (870)

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Jobs in demand by educational level

Jobs in demand by educational level

Prerequisite educational levels from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development

Jobs in demand by educational level

Jobs in demand by educational level

•Top OID w/o Degree

Ø6$16,000 to $35,00 salary range (typically)

•Top OID w/ Associate’s/Bachelor’s

Ø6HC occupations start appearing

Ø6$35,00 to $60,000 range (typically)

•Masters and Doctorates

Ø6Highest $50 to $80,000 plus

Ø6Sky’s the limit (Surgeons, Counselors, Physicians, Biologists, Lawyers, Urban Planners, Education Administrators, etc.)

Ø6

New LMI products in 2014

New LMI products in 2014

•“Better LMI”

–6Workforce supply and demand

–6Educational attainment of workers and employment outcomes of recent graduates by program of study

–6

•Cost of Living

–6Link basic needs budget to hourly pay and current/future job opportunities

–6Statewide report and regional/county-level analysis

Let me know how I can help

Let me know how I can help

Brent Pearson

Regional Labor Market Analyst

Labor Market Information Office

Phone: 507-389-1896

brent.pearson@state.mn.us

 
  • Copyright 2012
  • Minnesota Department of Education